Asian Research Journal of Arts & Social Sciences

This study investigated residents’ perceptions of the socioeconomic implications of projected population trend in Lagos State, Nigeria. A cross-sectional survey design was used, and secondary population projections for the 2015–2023 period were reviewed descriptively. Primary data were collected through a questionnaire administered to 250 adult residents selected from Ikeja, Surulere, Ojo, Somolu and Alimosho Local Government Areas. Fifty respondents were selected from each Local Government Area. Questionnaire responses were analysed using frequencies and percentages. Population projections were analysed using time-series trend analysis. The secondary population estimates were regarded as projections, rather than census counts, because the last national population census in Nigeria was conducted in 2006. The time-series examination revealed a statistically significant upward trend in the projected population of Lagos State between 2015 and 2023. The survey findings showed that 80% of respondents associated projected population trend with increased demand for infrastructure, 70% with unemployment, 100% with increased competition for resources, 100% with higher living costs, and 80.8% with increased crime. In contrast, 79.2% of the respondents viewed projected population trend as having a positive effect on economic growth and development. Further statistical testing showed that a significantly greater proportion than 50% of the respondents believed that projected population trend had positive economic contributions. In addition, a significant majority felt that social infrastructure had not kept pace with projected population trend. The responses to the open-ended questions showed that the major challenges associated with projected population trend were high living and rental costs, pressure on public facilities, crime, traffic congestion and noise. The respondents suggested strategies to address the challenges, such as better leadership, stronger security, effective traffic management, expansion of public facilities, industrial development, job creation and easily accessible family-planning services. The findings show that the sampled residents perceive projected population trend as an economic opportunity as well as a strain on urban services, resources and living conditions. However, owing to the study’s use of projected population data and a cross-sectional, perception-based survey conducted in only five local government areas, the results should not be interpreted as evidence of direct causal relationships between projected population trend and socioeconomic conditions or as fully representative of all residents of Lagos State.